Numerical Method for Highly Non-linear Mean-reverting Asset Price Model with CEV-type Process
Abstract
It is well documented from various empirical studies that the volatility process of an asset price dynamics is stochastic. This phenomenon called for a new approach to describing the random evolution of volatility through time with stochastic models. In this paper, we propose a mean-reverting theta-rho model for asset price dynamics where the volatility diffusion factor of this model follows a highly non-linear CEV-type process. Since this model lacks a closed-form formula, we construct a new truncated EM method to study it numerically under the Khasminskii-type condition. We justify that the truncated EM solutions can be used to evaluate a path-dependent financial product.
Key words: Asset price model, stochastic volatility, truncated EM scheme, strong convergence, financial product, Monte Carlo scheme.
1 Introduction
Several stochastic differential equations (SDEs) have been developed to describe random evolution of financial variables in time. The Black-Scholes model in [1] is widely used to describe time-series evolution of asset price dynamics under one of the assumptions that the asset price is log-normally distributed. However, as supported by many empirical evidence, the log-normality assumption does not hold exactly in reality. Various alternative stochastic models have since been proposed as modified versions of the Black-Scholes model. In 1977, Vasicek in [2] developed the well-known mean-reverting model as an alternative model for capturing short-term interest rate dynamics through time. This model is governed by
(1) |
with initial data , where and is a scalar Brownian motion. One main unique feature of SDE (1) is that the expectation of converges to the long-term value with the speed . However, in practice, this model yields negative values . Cox, ingersoll and Ross (CIR) in [3] addressed this drawback by extending SDE (1) to an alternative model often called the mean-reverting square root process which is driven by
(2) |
The square root diffusion factor avoids possible negative values. Later, Lewis in [4] generalised SDE (2) to the mean-reverting-theta process governed by
(3) |
where . The SDE (3) has been found a useful tool for modelling interest rate, asset price and other financial variables. However, by applying tests to US treasury bill data, it has been shown that . For instance, Chan et al. in [5] applied the Generalised Moment method to the treasury bill data to estimate . Similarly, with the same data, Nowman in [6] also estimated using the Gaussian Estimation method.
There are many literature where several classes of SDE (3) with parametric restrictions have been studied. For instance, Higham and Mao in [10] studied strong convergence of Monte Carlo simulations involving SDE (3) for . Mao in [20] studied strong convergence of EM method for SDE (3) when . Wu et al. in [11] established weak convergence of EM method for . Dong-Hyun et. al. documented a unique type of SDE (3) in [7] which admits closed-form solutions for bond prices and a concave relationship between interest rates and yields. Further discussions relating to SDE (3) could also be found in [8], [9], among others.
The original Black-Scholes model assumes constant volatility for asset price and even for options with different maturities and strikes over a trading period. This assumption makes the Black-Scholes model reproduce flat volatility surface in option pricing. However, in practice, volatility has been observed empirically to change as asset price changes. Essentially, this means that volatility is characterised by a smile or skew surface instead of a flat surface. This characteristic is important for pricing and evaluating complex financial derivatives. As a result, several authors have proposed a variety of volatility models to explain the volatility surface curve adequately. For instance, Dupire (1994) developed the local volatility model in [12] to precisely match the observed smile or skew surface of market volatility data. Subsequently, stochastic volatility models have also been introduced as alternative models for modelling the random nature of volatility through time. One of the most notable stochastic volatility models is the diffusion class of Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model driven by
(4) |
with initial data , , and is a scalar Brownian motion. SDE (4) is widely used by researchers and market practitioners for modelling volatility and other financial quantities (see, e.g., [13, 14]). In 2012, the authors in [21] established the weak convergence result of the Hull and White type model where the instantaneous volatility follows
(5) |
for . The reader is referred, for example, to [15, 16, 17] for further coverage of stochastic volatility models in finance.
From the empirical viewpoint, it would be more desirable in modelling context to generalise SDE (3) as a highly non-linear SDE of the form
(6) |
for asset price dynamics, where . Here, the variance function is driven by a highly non-linear type of SDE (5) of the form
(7) |
where and is independent of .
The highly non-linear component of SDE (6) makes it well-suited for explaining non-linearity in asset price. On the other hand, the inherent super-linear CEV dynamics may capture extreme non-linearity in market volatility to reproduce volatility surface curve adequately. Obviously, SDE (6) is not analytically tractable. The drift and diffusion terms are of super-linear growth. In this case, we recognise the need to develop an implementable numerical method to estimate the exact solution. However, to the best of our knowledge, there exists no relevant literature devoted to the convergent approximation of the system of SDE (6) in the strong sense. In this paper, we aim to close this gap by constructing several new numerical tools to study this model from viewpoint of financial applications.
The rest of the paper is organised as follows: In Section 2, we introduce some useful mathematical notations. In Section 3, we study the existence of a unique positive solution of SDE (6) and establish the finite moment of the solution. We construct a new truncated EM method to approximate SDE (6) in Section 4. In Section 5, we study numerical properties such as the finite moment and the finite time strong convergence of the numerical solutions. We implement numerical examples to validate the theoretical findings and conclude the paper with a financial application in Section 6.
2 Preliminaries
Throughout this paper unless specified otherwise, we employ the following notation. Let be a complete probability space with a filtration satisfying the usual conditions (i.e., it is increasing and right continuous while contains all null sets), and let denote the expectation corresponding to . Let and , , be scalar Brownian motions defined on the above probability space and are independent of each other. If are real numbers, then we denote as the maximum of and , and as the minimum of and . Let and . For an empty set , we set . For a set , we denote its indicator function by . Moreover, we let be an arbitrary positive number. Now consider the following scalar dynamics
(8) | ||||
(9) |
as equations of SDEs (6) and (7), where , , and . Let , where is the family of all real-valued functions defined on . Also let be the Itô diffusion operator such that
(10) | ||||
(11) |
where , , and are first-order partial derivatives with respect to , and , and, and are second-order partial derivatives with respect to and respectively. Given the diffusion operator, we can now write the Itô formula as
(12) | ||||
(13) |
The reader may refer to [20] for further details about the Itô formula.
3 Theoretical properties
In this section, we discuss pathwise existence of unique positive solutions and finite moments of the solutions to SDEs (8) and (9). The following assumption on the parameters is crucial to obtain the results.
3.1 Existence and uniqueness of solution
Lemma 3.2.
Proof.
Apparently, the coefficients of SDE (9) are locally Lipschitz continuous in . Hence there exists a unique positive maximal local solution on , where is the explosion time (e.g., see [20, 21]). Let us extend the domain of SDE (9) from to by setting the coefficients to 0 for . Then for every sufficiently large integer , such that , define the stopping time as
(16) |
and set . To complete the proof, we need to show that a.s. That is, it is enough to prove that as for any given and hence, . For , define a -function by
(17) |
Apparently, as or . By (11), we compute
So clearly, for and by (15), we infer leads and tends to for small . Similarly, we infer leads and also tends to for large . So there exists a constant such that
(18) |
By the Itô formula, we have
(19) |
It then follows that,
(20) |
This implies that as required. ∎
Lemma 3.3.
Proof.
Similarly, we treat SDE (8) as an SDE in by setting its coefficients to 0 whenever or . Obviously, the coefficients are locally Lipschitzian. Thus there exists a unique positive maximal local solution on , where is the explosion time (e.g., see [21]). So for any sufficiently large integer , define the stopping times
Now let
(21) |
Set and . Define a -function by
(22) |
for . Then for , we apply (10) to compute
Moreover, we can derive that
By the Itô formula, we derive that
This implies
Meanwhile, for and by (15), we can find a constant such that
(23) |
This means we have
(24) |
So, by letting , we obtain . By setting and using Lemma 3.2, we have . This implies . ∎
3.2 Finite moments
Lemma 3.4.
See [18] for the proof.
Lemma 3.5.
Proof.
For any sufficiently large integer , define the stopping times
Then set . For , we apply (11) to to compute
By the Itô formula, we get
Noting that
we obtain
So, by Assumption 3.1, we can find a constant such that
By letting , we can apply the Fatou lemma to have
and consequently,
as the desired assertion. The proof is thus complete. ∎
4 Numerical method
In this section, we construct the truncated EM method to approximate SDEs (8) and (9). But before then, we need to introduce the following lemmas which are needed to perform the convergence analysis (see [19]).
Lemma 4.1.
Lemma 4.2.
4.1 Numerical schemes
To begin with, let us extend the domain of SDE (9) from to and SDE (8) from to . We should mention that these extensions do not affect the positivity of the solutions and the local Lipschitz conditions. We define the truncated scheme by first choosing a strictly increasing continuous function such that as and
(31) |
Denote by the inverse function of and we see that is strictly increasing continuous function from to . We also choose a number and a strictly decreasing function such that
(32) |
For any given step size , we define the truncated functions by
and
for and . Clearly, we observe
(33) |
for , . The truncated functions and , and and maintain (28) and (29) respectively as shown in the following lemma.
Lemma 4.3.
Let Assumption 3.1 hold. Then, for all and , the truncated functions satisfy
(34) | ||||
(35) |
, , where and are independent of .
Proof.
See [19] for the proof of (35). To prove (34), fix any . Then for and with , by (30), we obtain
as required. For and with , we get
Again, we observe from (29) that for any and , we obtain
where as the required assertion in (34). We should mention that using these proofs, we could similarly establish the case when and with and and the case when and with and . ∎
Let us now form the discrete-time truncated EM solutions and to SDEs (8) and (9) for respectively, by setting , and computing
(36) | ||||
(37) |
for where , and . Let us now form corresponding versions of the continuous-time truncated EM solutions. The first versions are defined by
(38) | ||||
(39) |
on . These are the continuous-time step processes. The other versions are the continuous-time continuous processes defined on by
(40) | |||
(41) |
Obviously and are Itô processes on respectively satisfying Itô differentials
For all , we clearly observe that and .
5 Numerical properties
In this section, we establish the moment bounds and finite time strong convergence results for the truncated EM solutions.
5.1 Finite moments
In the sequel, let us recall the following useful lemmas. The proofs of these lemmas are in [19] and therefore omitted.
Lemma 5.1.
It is important to note that (42) also holds for because and coincide at discrete time for all .
Lemma 5.2.
For any and , we have
(43) |
and consequently,
(44) |
where is a positive constant which depends only on .
In addition to the above lemmas, we also need the following lemmas.
Lemma 5.3.
For any and , we have
(45) |
and consequently,
(46) |
where is a positive constant which depends only on .
Proof.
Lemma 5.4.
Proof.
Fix any and for every sufficiently large integer , define
Now set . By the Itô formula, we derive from (41) that
where
By the Young inequality, we have
where . Also, by Lemma 5.1, we have
Noting from (32) that , we have
where . We now combine and to get
The Gronwall inequality yields
where is independent of . Noting that
we can set to obtain
as the desired result. The proof is now complete. ∎
5.2 Strong convergence
Before we establish the main result in this section, we need the following lemmas. The proofs of these lemmas could be found in [18].
Lemma 5.5.
Let equation (15) hold and be fixed. Then for any , there exists a pair of positive constants and such that for each , we have
(48) |
where
(49) |
is a stopping time.
Lemma 5.6.
Let equation (15) hold. Then for any , , we have
(50) |
for any sufficiently large and any , where is a constant independent of and is a stopping time. Consequently, we have
(51) |
Let us proceed to establish the following useful lemmas.
Lemma 5.7.
Let Assumption 3.1 hold and be fixed. Define a stopping time by
(52) |
Then for any , there exists a pair of positive constants and such that for each , we have
(53) |
Proof.
We apply the Itô formula to (22) to compute
where,
So, By (10) and (14), we can find a constant such that
By the definition of the truncated functions, we note for ,
(54) |
So by Lemma 4.1, we have where,
Similarly,
Noting from (31) that for , we have . So by Lemma 4.1, we obtain
Combining , and , we then have
where
and
So by the Young inequality and Lemmas 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3, we now have
This implies
(55) |
For any , we may select sufficiently large such that
(56) |
and sufficiently small of each step size such that
(57) |
We now combine (56) and (57) to get the required assertion. ∎
Lemma 5.8.
Proof.
It follows from (8) and (41) that
where
So by the Hölder inequality, (27) and (54), we have
By the Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality and (54), we also have
where is a positive constant. By elementary inequality, we now have
It follows from (16) and (31) that
Then, by elementary inequality and (27), we have
So by combining and , we now get
So, by Lemmas 5.2, 5.2 and 5.7, we hence have
In particular, we have
where
The Gronwall inequality shows
as the required assertion, where
∎
The following lemma shows that the truncated EM solutions converge strongly to the exact solution without the stopping time.
Theorem 5.9.
Proof.
Let , and be the same as before. Now set
For any arbitrarily , we derive from the Young inequality that
(62) | ||||
(63) |
Then for , Lemmas 3.5 and 5.4 give us
(64) |
By Lemmas 3.3 and 5.7, we have
(65) |
Also, by Lemma 5.8, we get
(66) |
Therefore, we substitute (5.2), (65) and (66) into (62) to have
Given , we can choose so that
(67) |
Furthermore, for any given , there exists such that for , we may choose to obtain
(68) |
and then choose such that for , we have
(69) |
Lastly, we may choose sufficiently small for such that
(70) |
We then (67), (68), (69) and (70), to have
as desired. By Lemma 5.3, we also obtain (61) by letting . ∎
6 Numerical application
We now provide numerical demonstrations to support the theoretical result.
6.1 Simulation
In what follows, let us consider the following form of SDE (6)
(71) |
with initial data , where is driven by SDE (7) of the form
(72) |
with initial data . Apparently, the coefficient terms , , and of SDE (71) and SDE (72) are locally Lipschitz continuous. Moreover, we observe that
If we choose , then . Using a step size of , we get Monte Carlo simulated sample trajectories of SDE (72) and SDE (71) in Figure 1 and Figure 2 respectively.
6.2 Evaluation
In this session, we justify that the truncated EM solutions can be used to compute a barrier option with a European payoff . Let the asset price be the exact solution to SDE (6), be a fixed barrier, be an expiry date and a strike price. Then the exact payoff of a barrier option is
Using the step process (39), we could compute the approximate payoff by
So, from Theorem 5.9, we have
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